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The population of richest countries is healthy. This hypothesis is manly confirmed by the big part of analysis. But this hypothesis is right in other equal conditions. The aim of this discussion is to analyze if in the force-major condition the wealthy country can ensure public health. The analysis is provided at 06 April 2020.
The top 5 countries by total cases of COVID-19 are 4 members of G7 and Spain. So we want to ask: can the economic development prevent the disease distribution. Surely, we can reject this hypothesis. And when we see the last 5 countries by total cases, we can reject this hypothesis again. And the hypothesis we can suggest is in the top 5 countries the total cases of disease are the most, because of the big tourist flows and because of the activity of the population.
What about total deaths, so the top 5 countries by this indicator are the other 4 members of G7 and Spain. As we see in USA, Italy, France and Spain we have both most total cases and deaths cases. And only Germany is left out of top 5 countries by deaths cases. This can be thanks to its healthcare system.
Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 by total recovered in total cases, we can state that in the top 5 countries by this indicator only China has the biggest GDP in the world. The other countries are included neither in top 10 countries, which have the biggest GDP nor in top 10 countries, which have the biggest GDP per capita in the world. It’s interesting also that the lowest indicator of total cases/1M population have the countries with low income.
To show more correct situation we want to provide an econometric analysis to. The econometric analysis is provided by EViews 4.1. The number of observations is 188.
First, we want to estimate, is the correlation between population density and the other indicators. From this point of view the population density has no strong correlation with any indicators. Therefore, it’s interesting the correlation coefficients of population density with some indicators: total cases, total deaths have no strong positive, and total recovered has no strong negative correlation with population density. This means growth of population density causes growth of total cases and total deaths, as well as decreases the recovered cases.
The second interesting indicator is GDP: GDP has strong positive correlation with total cases, total deaths, total recovered and total tests, and also it has no strong negative correlation with recovered cases in total cases. This means the richest countries have the most cases of COVID-19, the most cases of deaths, the highest indicators of total tests and total recovered. Similarly, the GDP per capita has no strong but positive correlation with total cases, total deaths. So, we can reject the hypothesis that the richest country are able to ensure public health in force-major conditions.
by Lilit Sargsyan
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